On November 8, the presidential election will be held. Who Will Win – Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? What can Ukraine expect from a change of master in the White House?
– Whoever becomes the new master of the White House, we Ukrainians should not expect positives. The matter is not in one or another foreign policy position, which will be taken by the administration of the winner, but in the negative trends that are being traced today, – said Professor AFONIN, Professor of the Department of State Policy and Political Processes of the National Academy of Public Administration. – Therefore, in my opinion, it is better to predict not a result of the presidential campaign, but a powerful crisis in the countries of the North Atlantic area.
– Can this election reveal the final part of the crisis that hit the US in the 1992 presidential election?
– Yes, then the winner of the current contender – Bill Clinton. It was then that the first crisis phenomena in the political system of the superpower came to light: the number of adherents of two possible polar opposite political and value orientations in society affected the level of “Fifty-Fifty” (50 to 50). Many US experts are predicting a crisis in the United States (in Europe, I think) in the near future. It will be more powerful than the crisis of the Great Depression, which began 86 years ago. With the current US presidential election, Hillary Clinton will most likely win.
– Why not Donald Trump?
– His messages are aimed at the part of the media of the American mass consciousness that is dying out with the supporters of liberal-democratic and monetary-market intentions (aspirations). Let us just mention the measures taken by the US political leadership during the economic crisis of 2008: more than $ 800 billion of inflows into the US banking sector, financial support for carmakers – these steps are not as effective as they could have been in the time of Reaganomics. The powerful “leaching” of the financial component largely contributes to the imbalance of recent energy pricing in the world. Today, it has become apparent that the US socio-political system is gaining momentum toward communalist values in society. And so, the results of this election campaign are in favor of Hillary Clinton – the expression of unalistic values!
Many US experts predict US crisis soon (I think in Europe too)
– Why do you think Americans support Clinton?
– The processes that take place in the States leave no choice for Americans. I explain in more detail. The United States is rapidly moving towards so-called “network totalitarianism.” We are talking about the state of the society, most of which is the psychotype of a person who has the characteristics of a collectivist, quite familiar to us from the Soviet past. Such trends were also recently discussed by Sigmund Bauman (a well-known English sociologist of Polish descent: characterizing political processes, he suggested that Europe was moving to the same collectivism that Russia abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. given the socio-cultural differences between Americans and Europeans, the integral features (indicators) of these changes can be seen by analyzing the text of Hillary Clinton’s speeches at their congressional Democratic congresses.
– What do you mean?
– Analysis of her performances. Clinton responds to the public sentiment of Americans. She does not refer to them as self-sufficient individuals: they have been throughout the time since the Great Depression (the world crisis of 1920-1930), which brought to life the political and political arena of the life of the self-sufficient American individual “I”. In view of the new psychosocial situation in the United States, Hillary refers to her compatriots as a whole American community of “We”. There is another psycho-social indicator of a fundamentally new social situation in the United States – the transformation of the space-time component of the mass American consciousness. The new American is already inclined to change his copying in the past and switch to a dreamy future. This, by the way, is a component of the consciousness of the Soviet man: it was connected with the prospects of constructing analogues of the “Utopia” of the Englishman Thomas More and the “City of the Sun” of the Italian Tommaso Campanella (communist society). In responding to these psychosocial challenges, Clinton is actively shifting her focus from past to future in her public rhetoric.
– What to expect after Ukraine’s presidential election?
– Clinton’s victory will aggravate the situation between Russia and Ukraine, the West and the East. Such predictions are based on the cyclical nature of social processes, which are generally complementary (complementary) in nature. Replacing the current progressive evolutionary component of the Euro-Atlantic area (with the exhaustion of their potential) comes another – a complementary format – involution (curtailment of social processes). In general, this radical character of a transitional age (crisis) approaching the Western world is somewhat different from the times of the Great Depression. The main difference is that in this social system, a “new ball” is a new type of social entity – the “totual” collective.
– And what is the fate of the dollar? Will he collapse again?
– The first data on the collapse of the dollar appeared in 1995. They were detailed in their speeches by Lyndon LaRouche, an American economist and political figure. According to the latest expert forecasts, the next fall of the “bucks” will start literally from January of the new year. Such processes are related to the influence of various factors: changes in the US economic strategy (aimed at the transition to the physical economy), new psychosocial moods in American society, which, incidentally, determine the features of the 2016 presidential election campaign. States are returning to the “physical economy”: the main focus is shifting towards the real economy, money is diminished by its “throwing” into the economic space of other countries that are increasing their financial resources. The process carries major risks for the US to lose dollar hegemony in the world.
– When can this happen?
– Just in January 2017. Of course, this will lead to a financial and economic crisis in post-Soviet countries, whose economies are heavily dollarized. Considering Ukraine’s strong dependence on the dollar, it will “slip in” with us as well. Do not forget that money is a special commodity that expresses the value of all other goods and services. In the days before the Great Depression, there was a kind of parity in Western countries: the value of goods and services produced equaled money supply. And today? In a monetary economy, the amount of money supply far exceeds the cost of goods and services produced. It threatens to depreciate money.
In my opinion, in the near future Ukraine will witness the realization of the popular saying: there would be no happiness, so misery helped. The so-called “economic mechanics” established after World War II were coming to an end: the IMF and other financial instruments of the modern monetary economy resting on the dollar system were then created.
Valentin IVANENKO
Newspaper – «Nighttime Kiev»